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The cause of the next global market crash is hiding in plain sight

If financial markets can survive the United States’ war on Iran and Russia’s war against Ukraine, does this mean that financial crashes have become a thing of the past? Or have markets just not grasped the true nature of the current threats to the financial system? The latter is almost certainly the case, as former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein suggested when he said in a recent Financial Times interview that people had “got more complacent” about financial risks since the 2008 crisis. It is...

Mar 07, 2026 &03300707202631; 08:30 UTC www.scmp.com Trending 4/5

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Negative for markets

Sentiment score: -65/100

High impact Medium-term (weeks)

WHAT THIS MEANS

Financial markets may be underestimating systemic risks despite geopolitical tensions, with former Goldman Sachs CEO warning of increased complacency since 2008. Markets have shown resilience to Iran-US and Ukraine-Russia conflicts, but underlying vulnerabilities could trigger a significant correction if risk appetite suddenly reverses.

AI CONFIDENCE

72% High

SENTIMENT GAUGE

NEWS POWER SCORE

AFFECTED ASSETS

⇅

S&P 500

^GSPCIndex

High volatility expected

US equities vulnerable to sudden risk-off sentiment if hidden systemic risks materialize

⇅

Euro Stoxx 50

^STOXX50EIndex

High volatility expected

European markets exposed to geopolitical tensions and potential financial system stress

⇅

Euro / US Dollar

EURUSDCurrency

High volatility expected

Currency pair sensitive to risk sentiment shifts and European financial stability concerns

↑

Gold Futures

GC=FCommodity

Expected to rise

Safe-haven demand likely to increase if market complacency unwinds

↓

10-Year Treasury Yield

^TNXBond

Expected to decline

Bond yields may decline as investors flee to safety during potential market correction

PRICE HISTORY

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⚡ SUGGESTED ACTION

Consider defensive positioning with increased allocation to safe-haven assets (gold, bonds) and reduced exposure to cyclical equities. Monitor volatility indicators and credit spreads for early warning signs of risk-off sentiment.

KEY SIGNALS

Elevated market complacency despite geopolitical risksSystemic vulnerabilities potentially masked by recent resilienceRisk of sudden sentiment reversal and deleveragingDisconnect between asset valuations and underlying risks

SECTORS INVOLVED

Financial ServicesTechnologyConsumer DiscretionaryEnergy

Analysis generated on Mar 09, 2026 at 18:10 UTC

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by artificial intelligence for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation. Original reporting by SCMP Business. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

The cause of the next global market crash is hiding in plain sight

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