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Yardeni Raises Odds of US Market Meltdown to 35% on Iran War

US stocks are facing a growing risk of a sharp selloff this year as the escalating war in Iran hurts global markets, according to veteran strategist Ed Yardeni, updating his outlook for what he describes as “fast-moving times.”

Mar 09, 2026 &03360909202631; 02:36 UTC financialpost.com Trending 3/5

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Negative for markets

Sentiment score: -65/100

High impact Short-term (days)

WHAT THIS MEANS

Ed Yardeni has raised the probability of a US market meltdown to 35% due to escalating Iran tensions threatening global markets. This represents a significant increase in tail risk assessment for equity markets in 2024, reflecting geopolitical uncertainty impacting investor sentiment.

AI CONFIDENCE

75% High

SENTIMENT GAUGE

NEWS POWER SCORE

AFFECTED ASSETS

⇅

S&P 500

^GSPCIndex

High volatility expected

US equity market faces elevated meltdown risk from Iran geopolitical escalation

↓

Euro Stoxx 50

^STOXX50EIndex

Expected to decline

European markets vulnerable to Middle East conflict spillover effects

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Oil (WTI Crude)

CL=FCommodity

Expected to rise

Oil prices likely to rise on Iran war premium and supply disruption concerns

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Gold Futures

GC=FCommodity

Expected to rise

Gold benefits as safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions

⇅

Euro / US Dollar

EURUSDCurrency

High volatility expected

Currency volatility expected from risk-off sentiment and divergent central bank responses

PRICE HISTORY

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⚡ SUGGESTED ACTION

Consider reducing equity exposure or implementing protective put strategies on broad market indices. Increase allocation to defensive sectors, gold, and oil futures while monitoring Iran developments closely for potential escalation triggers.

KEY SIGNALS

35% meltdown probability signals elevated tail riskGeopolitical premium building in energy and volatility marketsFlight-to-safety rotation expected toward bonds and commoditiesFast-moving market conditions suggest increased hedging demand

SECTORS INVOLVED

EnergyDefenseUtilitiesConsumer StaplesTechnology

Analysis generated on Mar 09, 2026 at 15:13 UTC

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by artificial intelligence for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation. Original reporting by Financial Post. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Yardeni Raises Odds of US Market Meltdown to 35% on Iran War

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