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Экспорт подешевел, импорт развернулся // Мониторинг внешней торговли

Внешняя торговля России в 2025 году в целом осталась близкой к уровню предыдущего года: снижение экспорта оказалось умеренным, а импорт практически не изменился. По данным ЦБ, в 2025 году на рубль пришлось около 54% расчетов во внешнеторговом обороте — это исторический максимум, вызванный сокращением использования других валют.

Mar 09, 2026 &03380909202631; 22:38 UTC www.kommersant.ru

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Neutral impact

Sentiment score: -15/100

Moderate impact Medium-term (weeks)

WHAT THIS MEANS

Russia's 2025 external trade remained relatively stable compared to 2024, with moderate export decline and flat import levels. The ruble's share in foreign trade settlements reached a historic 54%, reflecting reduced usage of alternative currencies amid geopolitical pressures.

AI CONFIDENCE

72% High

SENTIMENT GAUGE

NEWS POWER SCORE

AFFECTED ASSETS

⇅

Euro / US Dollar

EURUSDCurrency

High volatility expected

Ruble strength in trade settlements may indicate currency diversification away from Western currencies, affecting EUR/USD dynamics

↓

Oil (WTI Crude)

CL=FCommodity

Expected to decline

Moderate export decline suggests reduced Russian oil and commodity exports, pressuring crude prices

↓

FTSE MIB (Italy)

FTSEMIB.MIIndex

Expected to decline

European indices may face headwinds from reduced Russian trade activity and import stagnation affecting supply chains

PRICE HISTORY

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⚡ SUGGESTED ACTION

Monitor ruble strength and commodity export trends; consider long positions on alternative currency pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD) as de-dollarization continues. Watch energy commodity prices for further downside pressure from reduced Russian exports.

KEY SIGNALS

Ruble reaches 54% share in trade settlements - historic maximumExport contraction remains moderate despite sanctionsImport levels stable, suggesting domestic demand resilienceDe-dollarization trend accelerating in Russian trade

SECTORS INVOLVED

EnergyCommoditiesInternational TradeCurrency Markets

Analysis generated on Mar 10, 2026 at 00:06 UTC

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by artificial intelligence for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation. Original reporting by Kommersant. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Экспорт подешевел, импорт развернулся // Мониторинг внешней торговли

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