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Middle East war has ‘sapped’ confidence – SBG’s Goolam Ballim

Chief economist at the Standard Bank Group says all bets are off now for interest rate cuts that were touted at the start of the year, but that the Reserve Bank may opt for a pause this month instead of a reflexive panic move.

Mar 10, 2026 &03031010202631; 02:03 UTC www.moneyweb.co.za Trending 3/5

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Negative for markets

Sentiment score: -45/100

Moderate impact Short-term (days)

WHAT THIS MEANS

Middle East geopolitical tensions have eroded market confidence and disrupted interest rate cut expectations. Standard Bank Group's chief economist suggests central banks may pause rate decisions rather than implement reflexive cuts, indicating a shift toward cautious monetary policy.

AI CONFIDENCE

72% High

SENTIMENT GAUGE

NEWS POWER SCORE

AFFECTED ASSETS

⇅

Euro / US Dollar

EURUSDCurrency

High volatility expected

Geopolitical uncertainty typically strengthens safe-haven currencies; central bank pause signals may weaken EUR

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10-Year Treasury Yield

^TNXBond

Expected to rise

Reduced interest rate cut expectations support higher bond yields

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Gold Futures

GC=FCommodity

Expected to rise

Middle East tensions historically drive safe-haven demand for gold

⇅

Oil (WTI Crude)

CL=FCommodity

High volatility expected

Geopolitical risk in Middle East creates oil price volatility

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S&P 500

^GSPCIndex

Expected to decline

Confidence erosion and monetary policy uncertainty weigh on equity markets

PRICE HISTORY

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⚡ SUGGESTED ACTION

Rotate toward defensive sectors and safe-haven assets (gold, bonds). Monitor central bank communications closely for rate pause signals; consider reducing equity exposure until geopolitical tensions stabilize.

KEY SIGNALS

Geopolitical risk premium increasingInterest rate cut expectations reversedCentral bank policy shift toward pause modeMarket confidence deteriorationSafe-haven asset demand rising

SECTORS INVOLVED

Financial ServicesEnergyUtilitiesDefensive Sectors

Analysis generated on Mar 10, 2026 at 02:38 UTC

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by artificial intelligence for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation. Original reporting by Moneyweb. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Middle East war has ‘sapped’ confidence – SBG’s Goolam Ballim

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