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ЦМАКП: российская экономика находится в одном шаге от стагфляции

Центр макроэкономического анализа и краткосрочного прогнозирования (ЦМАКП) предупредил о том, что российская экономика близка к состоянию стагфляции — сочетанию застоя ВВП и роста цен. Согласно отчету экспертов, с которым ознакомились «Известия», в январе 2026 года ВВП снизился на 2,1% после роста на 1,9% в декабре 2025 года.

Mar 10, 2026 &03351010202631; 09:35 UTC www.kommersant.ru

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Negative for markets

Sentiment score: -75/100

High impact Immediate effect (hours)

WHAT THIS MEANS

Russian economic research center warns that Russia's economy is on the brink of stagflation, with GDP contracting 2.1% in January 2026 after growing 1.9% in December 2025, indicating a dangerous combination of economic stagnation and rising prices.

AI CONFIDENCE

85% Very high

SENTIMENT GAUGE

NEWS POWER SCORE

AFFECTED ASSETS

↑

Euro / US Dollar

EURUSDCurrency

Expected to rise

Russian economic weakness typically strengthens EUR relative to RUB-linked movements and broader risk sentiment

↓

Euro Stoxx 50

^STOXX50EIndex

Expected to decline

European equities exposed to Russian trade and economic deterioration; stagflation concerns weigh on risk assets

↓

Oil (WTI Crude)

CL=FCommodity

Expected to decline

Russian economic contraction reduces energy demand; stagflation typically pressures commodity prices

↓

10-Year Treasury Yield

^TNXBond

Expected to decline

Stagflation concerns and economic weakness drive flight-to-safety demand for bonds, lowering yields

PRICE HISTORY

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⚡ SUGGESTED ACTION

Reduce exposure to Russian-linked assets and European equities with Russian exposure. Consider defensive positioning with bonds and safe-haven currencies; monitor for potential central bank policy responses that could create additional volatility.

KEY SIGNALS

GDP contraction of 2.1% signals economic deteriorationStagflation warning indicates simultaneous inflation and stagnation risksSharp reversal from December growth to January contraction suggests volatilityCentral bank policy challenges in stagflation environment

SECTORS INVOLVED

EnergyMaterialsFinancialsConsumer Discretionary

Analysis generated on Mar 11, 2026 at 03:32 UTC

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by artificial intelligence for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation. Original reporting by Kommersant. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

ЦМАКП: российская экономика находится в одном шаге от стагфляции

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