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Return to the 2022 stock-market playbook as Iran conflict drags on, say these strategists

Barclays says the chasm between winning and losing stocks in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine was huge. Here are their style picks.

Mar 10, 2026 &03001010202631; 11:00 UTC feeds.marketwatch.com Trending 5/5

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Negative for markets

Sentiment score: -65/100

High impact Short-term (days)

WHAT THIS MEANS

Geopolitical tensions with Iran are prompting strategists to revisit 2022's market playbook when Russia invaded Ukraine, creating significant divergence between winning and losing stocks. Barclays identifies specific style preferences that benefited during the previous conflict period, suggesting similar patterns may emerge if tensions escalate.

AI CONFIDENCE

72% High

SENTIMENT GAUGE

NEWS POWER SCORE

AFFECTED ASSETS

⇅

S&P 500

^GSPCIndex

High volatility expected

Geopolitical uncertainty creates market volatility; defensive sectors may outperform growth

⇅

Euro Stoxx 50

^STOXX50EIndex

High volatility expected

European markets sensitive to Middle East tensions and energy supply disruptions

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Oil (WTI Crude)

CL=FCommodity

Expected to rise

Iran conflict escalation typically drives crude oil prices higher due to supply concerns

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Gold Futures

GC=FCommodity

Expected to rise

Safe-haven demand increases during geopolitical crises

⇅

Euro / US Dollar

EURUSDCurrency

High volatility expected

European exposure to Middle East tensions and energy prices creates currency volatility

PRICE HISTORY

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⚡ SUGGESTED ACTION

Consider rotating portfolio toward defensive sectors (utilities, staples, healthcare) and energy stocks while reducing exposure to growth and cyclical sectors. Monitor crude oil and safe-haven assets (gold, bonds) as leading indicators of escalation risk.

KEY SIGNALS

Geopolitical risk premium emergingDefensive stock rotation likelyEnergy sector beneficiary from supply concernsGrowth stocks may underperformSafe-haven assets gaining demand

SECTORS INVOLVED

EnergyUtilitiesConsumer StaplesHealthcareDefense

Analysis generated on Mar 11, 2026 at 03:13 UTC

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by artificial intelligence for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation. Original reporting by MarketWatch. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Return to the 2022 stock-market playbook as Iran conflict drags on, say these strategists

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