Kommersant RU

Бюджет утвердился в дефиците // За первые два месяца доходы отстали от расходов на рекордные 3,45 трлн рублей

Дефицит федерального бюджета по итогам января—февраля вырос до 1,5% ВВП, или 3,45 трлн руб., почти выполнив таким образом «план» по этому показателю на весь 2026 год. Столь внушительная «дыра» в бюджете объясняется проседанием нефтегазовых доходов при существенном росте трат января—февраля. Далее поступления от нефти и газа на фоне нынешних мировых событий должны подрасти, а траты по окончании периода усиленного авансирования — нормализоваться.

Mar 10, 2026 &03331010202631; 18:33 UTC www.kommersant.ru

Read original on www.kommersant.ru ↗

↘

Negative for markets

Sentiment score: -65/100

High impact Medium-term (weeks)

WHAT THIS MEANS

Russia's federal budget deficit reached a record 3.45 trillion rubles (1.5% of GDP) in January-February 2026, nearly fulfilling the entire year's deficit target in just two months. The deficit is driven by declining oil and gas revenues combined with elevated government spending, though revenues are expected to recover as global conditions stabilize and spending normalizes.

AI CONFIDENCE

75% High

SENTIMENT GAUGE

NEWS POWER SCORE

AFFECTED ASSETS

↓

Euro / US Dollar

EURUSDCurrency

Expected to decline

Russian fiscal deterioration may weaken RUB as budget pressures increase capital outflow risks and inflation concerns

⇅

Oil (WTI Crude)

CL=FCommodity

High volatility expected

Oil price weakness cited as primary cause of budget deficit; geopolitical factors create continued volatility

↓

Euro Stoxx 50

^STOXX50EIndex

Expected to decline

European equities exposed to Russian economic stress and energy sector uncertainty

↑

Gold Futures

GC=FCommodity

Expected to rise

Safe-haven demand may increase amid emerging market fiscal concerns

PRICE HISTORY

Loading chart...

⚡ SUGGESTED ACTION

Short EURUSD and Russian-exposed European equities; consider long positions in safe-haven assets (gold, bonds) and energy hedges. Monitor oil price recovery and Russian spending normalization as key catalysts for mean reversion.

KEY SIGNALS

Record budget deficit at 1.5% of GDP in just 2 monthsOil and gas revenue collapse driving fiscal deteriorationGovernment spending elevated during advance financing periodFull-year deficit target nearly achieved by FebruaryStructural fiscal imbalance requiring revenue recovery or spending cuts

SECTORS INVOLVED

EnergyFinancialsGovernment BondsEmerging Markets

Analysis generated on Mar 11, 2026 at 00:52 UTC

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by artificial intelligence for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation. Original reporting by Kommersant. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Бюджет утвердился в дефиците // За первые два месяца доходы отстали от расходов на рекордные 3,45 трлн рублей

RELATED INTELLIGENCE