Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq stage big comeback, oil plummets as Trump says war could be over soon

The S&P 500 is staging a geopolitically-driven recovery at 6775.80, approximately 2.9% below its 5-year high of 6978.60. The catalyst — Trump signaling potential war resolution — is a classic risk-on trigger that historically produces sharp but often short-lived equity spikes paired with energy sector rotation. Monthly volatility of 3.59% means a single monthly sigma move could push either to ~7020 (ATH breach) or ~6532 (prior support zone). The recent 6-session micro-trend shows a compression pattern from 6869.5 down to 6775.8, suggesting this bounce may be testing overhead resistance before commitment. Oil plummeting simultaneously compresses energy sector earnings while boosting consumer discretionary and transportation margins — a net positive for broader index composition but with sector-level dispersion risk. ⚡ DEEP SONNET: Buy on any intraday pullback to 6740-6760 zone; avoid chasing the initial gap-up open. Scale in with 50% at current levels if immediate follow-through confirmed above 6800 on strong volume. | TP:2.8% SL:2.2% | 7-21 days (short-term tactical trade; reassess on any geopolitical reversal signal) | Risk:MEDIUM — The primary risk is catalyst reversal: geopolitical news-driven rallies have a historically short half-life unless confirmed by diplomatic follow-through within 48-72 hours. Proximity to ATH at 6978.60 limits asymmetric upside. Oil collapse introduces secondary risks in energy sector credit spreads and high-yield bonds which could bleed into broader risk sentiment. Additionally, the March 2026 consolidation range (6740-6870) represents a technical compression that could resolve violently in either direction. | Sizing:STANDARD