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US inflation stayed flat at 2.4% in February before effects of war on Iran kicked in

Effect of war on prices not reflected in data, as Trump says only ‘fools’ would think oil price shocks would be significantSign up for the Breaking News US email to get newsletter alerts in your inboxUS inflation stayed flat at 2.4% in February, according to government data released Wednesday that provides a snapshot of the US economy before it was thrown into a tailspin by the US-Israel conflict with Iran.The levelling comes after prices swung last year, reaching a four-year low in April before shooting back up in September. In late fall, inflation crept down again, reaching 2.4% in January. Continue reading...

Mar 11, 2026 &03461111202631; 13:46 UTC www.theguardian.com

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Neutral impact

Sentiment score: -15/100

Moderate impact Short-term (days)

WHAT THIS MEANS

US inflation remained flat at 2.4% in February, reflecting pre-conflict economic conditions before potential geopolitical disruptions from US-Iran tensions. The data shows price stability after volatility in 2024, but upcoming geopolitical risks could pressure commodity prices and inflation expectations in coming months.

AI CONFIDENCE

72% High

SENTIMENT GAUGE

NEWS POWER SCORE

AFFECTED ASSETS

⇅

Oil (WTI Crude)

CL=FCommodity

High volatility expected

Geopolitical tensions with Iran could disrupt oil supply and push crude prices higher despite current inflation stability

⇅

S&P 500

^GSPCIndex

High volatility expected

US equity markets sensitive to inflation data and geopolitical risk premium; current flat inflation supports valuations but conflict uncertainty creates headwinds

⇅

Euro / US Dollar

EURUSDCurrency

High volatility expected

Safe-haven flows and energy price uncertainty could strengthen USD as risk-off sentiment increases

↑

Gold Futures

GC=FCommodity

Expected to rise

Geopolitical tensions typically drive gold prices higher as investors seek safe-haven assets

⇅

10-Year Treasury Yield

^TNXBond

High volatility expected

Flat inflation supports lower yields, but geopolitical risk and potential oil shocks could create upward pressure on rates

PRICE HISTORY

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⚡ SUGGESTED ACTION

Monitor oil futures (CL=F) and geopolitical developments closely; consider defensive positioning in equities while maintaining inflation-hedge exposure through commodities and gold. Watch for March inflation data which will capture conflict-related price pressures.

KEY SIGNALS

Inflation stability at 2.4% supports dovish Fed expectationsGeopolitical risk premium emerging from Iran conflict not yet reflected in February dataOil price volatility expected to impact future inflation readingsSafe-haven asset demand likely to increase in near term

SECTORS INVOLVED

EnergyFinancialsUtilitiesConsumer Staples

Analysis generated on Mar 12, 2026 at 01:12 UTC

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by artificial intelligence for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation. Original reporting by The Guardian Business. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

US inflation stayed flat at 2.4% in February before effects of war on Iran kicked in

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