Irã lançou minas navais no Estreito de Ormuz, dizem fontes

The Strait of Hormuz naval mine deployment by Iran represents one of the most acute geopolitical risk catalysts for crude oil markets, historically triggering immediate 15-25% price spikes (2019 tanker attacks: +4.5% intraday; 1987 Tanker War: sustained 20%+ premium). At 83.2, CL=F has pulled back ~12.2% from the recent March 2026 peak of 94.77, creating a technically favorable re-entry point ahead of a geopolitical repricing. Monthly volatility of 7.2% (σ) means the current 12% retracement represents approximately 1.67σ, historically a mean-reversion inflection zone. The Hormuz Strait carries ~21% of global seaborne oil—physical disruption would fundamentally alter the near-term supply/demand balance, with the IEA estimating 17-20M bpd at risk. The L2 bearish sentiment of -75 for broader markets is directionally correct, but the crude-specific vector is strongly bullish given supply shock mechanics. ⚡ DEEP SONNET: Current market price 82.50-83.50 range on opening momentum, or limit order at 80.00-81.00 on any initial spike-and-fade pattern (first 2-4 hours post-news). Avoid chasing above 87.00 without confirmation of physical disruption. | TP:17.5% SL:6.5% | 5-21 trading days depending on escalation trajectory; reassess at 72h mark for confirmation signals | Risk:HIGH — Naval mine deployment is a kinetic escalation that introduces non-linear tail risk: (1) de-escalation within 48-72h would unwind any spike rapidly, (2) tanker insurance markets will react immediately increasing shipping costs +30-50% regardless of military outcome, (3) the 'sources' qualifier on the news introduces confirmation risk—unverified geopolitical news has historically generated 50-60% of the immediate spike before partial reversal upon confirmation/denial; (4) the 2026 +44.9% YTD return suggests significant long positioning already in place, creating crowded-trade risk on de-escalation. | Sizing:STANDARD