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Tariff refunds are expected to come in the second quarter: Barclays

The Trump administration’s new replacement tariffs could result in a lower effective rate of 9.1%, according to a strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Mar 11, 2026 &03081111202631; 18:08 UTC feeds.marketwatch.com Trending 4/5

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Positive for markets

Sentiment score: +45/100

Moderate impact Short-term (days)

WHAT THIS MEANS

Trump administration's replacement tariffs are expected to result in a lower effective rate of 9.1%, with refunds anticipated in Q2. This suggests a more moderate tariff impact than initially feared, potentially supporting risk assets and reducing inflation concerns.

AI CONFIDENCE

72% High

SENTIMENT GAUGE

NEWS POWER SCORE

AFFECTED ASSETS

↑

S&P 500

^GSPCIndex

Expected to rise

Lower effective tariff rates reduce corporate cost pressures and support equity valuations

↑

Euro Stoxx 50

^STOXX50EIndex

Expected to rise

European exporters benefit from moderating US tariff environment

↑

Euro / US Dollar

EURUSDCurrency

Expected to rise

Lower US tariff rates reduce USD safe-haven demand

↓

10-Year Treasury Yield

^TNXBond

Expected to decline

Reduced inflation expectations from lower tariff impact support bond prices

↓

Oil (WTI Crude)

CL=FCommodity

Expected to decline

Lower tariff-driven inflation concerns reduce commodity demand expectations

PRICE HISTORY

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⚡ SUGGESTED ACTION

Long equities (^GSPC, ^STOXX50E) and short duration bonds on tariff moderation expectations. Monitor Q2 refund announcements for confirmation; consider rotating into export-sensitive sectors.

KEY SIGNALS

Tariff refunds expected Q2 2025Effective tariff rate of 9.1% vs. higher initial expectationsReduced corporate margin pressureLower inflation trajectory implications

SECTORS INVOLVED

TechnologyConsumer DiscretionaryIndustrialsAutomotive

Analysis generated on Mar 12, 2026 at 00:34 UTC

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by artificial intelligence for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation. Original reporting by MarketWatch. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Tariff refunds are expected to come in the second quarter: Barclays

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