Lavvi (LAVV3) tem queda de 13% no lucro do 4º tri

Lavvi's Q4 results reveal structural margin deterioration: a 410bps EBITDA margin compression (30.4%→26.3%) alongside a 21% EBITDA decline signals cost pressures outpacing revenue growth in a high-Selic environment (~13.75%). For a mid-to-high-income segment developer concentrated in São Paulo, this margin profile suggests either elevated land bank financing costs, cost overruns in active projects, or weakening sales velocity (VSO) — all compounding factors. The earnings miss magnitude (-13% net income, -21% EBITDA) exceeds typical seasonal Q4 noise and points to systemic margin erosion. Revenue recognition timing from launches may temporarily mask deteriorating operational leverage, but the EBITDA delta confirms real underlying compression that forward guidance cannot easily reverse in 1-2 quarters. ⚡ DEEP SONNET: Short/underweight on any technical bounce to R$8.20-8.50 range (prior support-turned-resistance); avoid chasing immediate post-news gap down. Wait for 1-2 session consolidation to establish cleaner risk/reward. | TP:16% SL:6% | 3-6 weeks primary move; 3-6 months if sector cycle confirms continued deterioration | Risk:HIGH — Margin compression is accelerating, not stabilizing. Key risks: (1) further INCC construction cost inflation eroding backlog margins; (2) refinancing exposure in a prolonged high-rate environment; (3) land bank impairments if launches are delayed. The 21% EBITDA decline exceeds the 13% net income drop, implying D&A or below-the-line items are temporarily cushioning EPS — a false floor that may disappoint further in Q1. | Sizing:CONSERVATIVE