Iran Crisis Worsens as Oman Evacuates Port, Ships Hit

The Oman port evacuation and tanker strikes in Iraqi waters represent a direct supply-chain shock with quantifiable premium implications for Brent/WTI. At $93.55, CL=F sits ~27% above its 5-year mean of $73.63, already pricing in significant geopolitical risk from the 2026 +62.92% YTD rally, yet a full Strait of Hormuz disruption scenario historically pushed WTI toward $105-120 range. Monthly sigma of 7.27% ($6.80/bbl) suggests an asymmetric upside move is achievable within 1-2 weekly bars on escalation confirmation. The recent intramonth pattern (94.77 → 83.20 → 93.55) shows aggressive buy-the-dip behavior, confirming institutional accumulation near the $83 structural support level. Risk/reward favors long exposure with tight discipline given the already-extended base. ⚡ DEEP SONNET: Buy on any intraday pullback to $91.80-92.50 range; current $93.55 is acceptable as momentum entry with partial sizing, scaling remainder on consolidation. Avoid chasing above $95 on first breakout attempt. | TP:9.5% SL:4.8% | 7-18 trading days (1-3 weeks), geopolitical premium event-driven | Risk:HIGH — Price is extended (+27% above 5yr mean, +62.92% YTD), creating vulnerability to sharp reversals on any ceasefire signal or diplomatic breakthrough. SPR release risk from the US and coordinated IEA response could suppress the geopolitical premium rapidly. Additionally, monthly volatility of 7.27% means stop-outs are frequent in this regime. | Sizing:STANDARD