Steven Major Sees Bonds Facing Stagflation Scenario

The TNX is exhibiting clear upward momentum with the last 6 readings accelerating from 4.13 to 4.29, a 39bps move concentrated in a compressed timeframe — statistically significant relative to the 7.96% monthly vol which implies approximately 34bps of expected monthly movement. Steven Major's stagflation framing is quantitatively coherent: CPI remaining elevated while PMIs soften removes the Fed's ability to cut, anchoring the short end and forcing the term premium higher. At 4.285, yields sit 73bps below the October 2023 multi-decade high of 4.875, leaving meaningful upside room before structural resistance is tested. The 2026 YTD pattern shows a corrective dip to 4.13 followed by swift mean reversion toward cycle highs, consistent with a higher-for-longer regime where dips are bought in yield space. ⚡ DEEP SONNET: Current levels 4.26-4.30 represent a viable entry on the yield-long thesis; a minor pullback to 4.20-4.22 would offer a higher-conviction re-entry with improved risk/reward ahead of the 4.50-4.60 technical target zone | TP:8.5% SL:4.3% | 8-14 weeks | Risk:MEDIUM — Primary tail risk is a hard landing scenario where growth collapse dominates inflation, triggering a flight-to-safety rally in Treasuries and a sharp yield compression below 4.0. Secondary risk is a surprise Fed pivot driven by financial stability concerns (credit spreads widening, equity drawdown >15%) which would force yields lower despite sticky inflation. The cross-market feedback loop between equity volatility and safe-haven bond demand remains the key non-linear risk factor. | Sizing:STANDARD