AI, chip stocks tumble after Iran war causes 'largest supply disruption' in global oil market

An Iran-triggered oil supply disruption creates a multi-vector bearish shock for AI/semiconductor names: (1) energy cost inflation directly compresses margins for power-intensive semiconductor fabs and hyperscale data centers, (2) risk-off rotation out of high-beta growth assets accelerates as real rates reprice upward with oil-driven CPI, (3) Strait of Hormuz disruption risk threatens rare earth and specialty chemical shipping lanes critical to chip manufacturing, and (4) IT.MI as a European-listed tech asset faces compounded exposure given the EU's structural energy import dependency, historically amplifying geopolitical oil shocks by 1.3-1.7x versus US peers. The L2 signal of -65/85% confidence aligns with a legitimate fundamental deterioration thesis, not merely sentiment noise. ⚡ DEEP SONNET: Do not chase the initial panic gap down. Wait for a 48-72 hour consolidation after the first shock wave — enter short or reduce longs on the first dead-cat bounce into resistance, likely at -3% to -5% from pre-news levels. Avoid opening at market open on day 1 due to spread widening and stop-hunt volatility. | TP:11.5% SL:4.5% | 2 to 5 weeks depending on geopolitical de-escalation signals or sustained oil above $100/bbl | Risk:HIGH — Three compounding risk layers: (1) geopolitical escalation non-linearity (conflict spread to Hormuz = acute supply shock), (2) central bank policy paralysis between inflation spike and growth slowdown, (3) liquidity risk in Italian mid-cap tech names during European risk-off episodes. Tail risk of 25%+ drawdown in a full escalation scenario cannot be dismissed given current positioning data showing crowded long AI/chip exposure. | Sizing:CONSERVATIVE