January GDP report to show if UK economy was growing before Iran war energy shock – business live
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial newsGood morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets, and the world economy.A lot has changed since January – with conflict in the Middle East driving oil prices to $100 a barrel, disrupting supply chains and fuelling stagflation fears.After a disappointing end to the year, we expect the economy to jump to a flying start in Q1-26. Indeed, activity data has thus far been encouraging. And we expect some catch up in the first couple of months of the year, after a weak Q4-25.The upcoming GDP report won’t be front and centre for markets, however. Events in the Middle East continue to overshadow lagged data.7am GMT: UK GDP report for January7am GMT: UK trade report for January10am GMT: Eurozone industrial production report for January12.30pm GMT: US PCE inflation measure2pm GMT: US JOLTs Job Openings report2pm GMT: University of Michigan’s survey of US consumer confidence Continue reading...
Mar 13, 2026 &03541313202631; 06:54 UTCwww.theguardian.comTrending 5/5
UK January GDP report expected to show economic recovery after weak Q4 2025, but Middle East conflict and oil price surge to $100/barrel are creating stagflation concerns that may overshadow positive data. Multiple economic indicators across UK, Eurozone, and US will be released today, with geopolitical tensions continuing to dominate market sentiment.
AI CONFIDENCE
65% High
SENTIMENT GAUGE
NEWS POWER SCORE
AFFECTED ASSETS
⇅
British Pound / US Dollar
GBPUSDCurrency
High volatility expected
UK GDP data could support sterling if positive, but Middle East tensions and stagflation fears create downward pressure
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Oil (WTI Crude)
CL=FCommodity
Expected to rise
Oil prices already elevated at $100/barrel due to Middle East conflict, supply chain disruptions expected to persist
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S&P 500
^GSPCIndex
High volatility expected
US inflation data (PCE) and job openings report could be overshadowed by stagflation concerns from energy shock
↓
FTSE MIB (Italy)
FTSEMIB.MIIndex
Expected to decline
European equities vulnerable to stagflation scenario combining weak growth with rising energy costs
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10-Year Treasury Yield
^TNXBond
High volatility expected
Bond yields may face conflicting pressures: growth data supporting higher rates vs. stagflation fears supporting lower rates
PRICE HISTORY
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⚡ SUGGESTED ACTION
Monitor UK GDP release for growth confirmation, but prioritize tracking oil price movements and Middle East developments as primary market drivers. Consider hedging energy-sensitive positions and reducing exposure to cyclical sectors until stagflation risks clarify; watch US PCE inflation closely for Fed policy implications.
KEY SIGNALS
UK GDP expected to rebound in Q1 2026 after Q4 weaknessOil prices at $100/barrel creating stagflation riskMiddle East geopolitical tensions overshadowing economic dataSupply chain disruptions from conflictUS inflation and employment data critical for Fed policy directionEurozone industrial production weakness likely given energy shock
Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by artificial intelligence for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation. Original reporting by The Guardian Business. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
The Guardian Business
EN
BNN Bloomberg
Mar 16, 19:10
Positive 
Bloomberg Markets
Mar 16, 16:50
Neutral 
Dagens Industri
Mar 16, 15:56
Negative