DJI46,944.35+0.83%
GDAXI23,564.01+0.50%
GSPC6,704.63+1.09%
HSI25,834.02+1.45%
IXIC22,411.50+1.38%
N22553,751.15-0.13%
AAPL253.14+1.21%
AMZN209.90+1.07%
CL95.09-3.67%
EURUSD1.1501+0.68%
GBPUSD1.3311+0.67%
GC5,003.10-1.16%
GOOG303.54+0.69%
JPM285.61+0.77%
META626.36+2.15%
MSFT399.19+0.92%
NVDA184.89+2.57%
TSLA397.34+1.57%
DJI46,944.35+0.83%
GDAXI23,564.01+0.50%
GSPC6,704.63+1.09%
HSI25,834.02+1.45%
IXIC22,411.50+1.38%
N22553,751.15-0.13%
AAPL253.14+1.21%
AMZN209.90+1.07%
CL95.09-3.67%
EURUSD1.1501+0.68%
GBPUSD1.3311+0.67%
GC5,003.10-1.16%
GOOG303.54+0.69%
JPM285.61+0.77%
META626.36+2.15%
MSFT399.19+0.92%
NVDA184.89+2.57%
TSLA397.34+1.57%
DJI46,944.35+0.83%
GDAXI23,564.01+0.50%
GSPC6,704.63+1.09%
HSI25,834.02+1.45%
IXIC22,411.50+1.38%
N22553,751.15-0.13%
AAPL253.14+1.21%
AMZN209.90+1.07%
CL95.09-3.67%
EURUSD1.1501+0.68%
GBPUSD1.3311+0.67%
GC5,003.10-1.16%
GOOG303.54+0.69%
JPM285.61+0.77%
META626.36+2.15%
MSFT399.19+0.92%
NVDA184.89+2.57%
TSLA397.34+1.57%
CYBERETIKAGLOBAL FINANCIAL INTELLIGENCE
LIVE
CAN Financial Post EN

How the war in Iran is fundamentally shifting the outlook for mortgage rates

Robert McLister: The probability of lower mortgage rates this year just went from 'maybe' to 'probably not'

Mar 13, 2026 &03001313202631; 10:00 UTC financialpost.com Trending 5/5
Read original on financialpost.com ↗
↘
Negative for markets
Sentiment score: -65/100
High impact Medium-term (weeks)
WHAT THIS MEANS
Escalating tensions in Iran are reducing the likelihood of mortgage rate cuts in 2024, shifting market expectations from possible rate reductions to sustained higher rates. Geopolitical risk premiums are increasing, which typically keeps central banks more cautious about easing monetary policy.
AI CONFIDENCE
78% High
SENTIMENT GAUGE
NEWS POWER SCORE
AFFECTED ASSETS
↑
10-Year Treasury Yield
^TNXBond
Expected to rise
10-year Treasury yields likely to remain elevated due to geopolitical risk premium and reduced rate-cut expectations
⇅
Euro / US Dollar
EURUSDCurrency
High volatility expected
Iran tensions create safe-haven demand for USD, offsetting potential ECB easing signals
↑
Oil (WTI Crude)
CL=FCommodity
Expected to rise
Oil prices typically rise on Middle East geopolitical tensions, supporting inflation concerns
⇅
S&P 500
^GSPCIndex
High volatility expected
Equity markets face headwinds from higher rates and geopolitical uncertainty, though energy stocks may benefit
PRICE HISTORY
Loading chart...
⚡ SUGGESTED ACTION
Consider reducing long-duration bond positions and mortgage-sensitive real estate exposure. Increase allocation to energy and defensive sectors while monitoring oil prices as a key indicator of escalation risk.
KEY SIGNALS
Geopolitical risk premium increasingMortgage rate cut probability declining significantlyCentral bank policy stance becoming more hawkishOil price volatility expected to persistSafe-haven asset demand rising
SECTORS INVOLVED
Financial ServicesEnergyUtilitiesReal Estate
Analysis generated on Mar 16, 2026 at 15:00 UTC
Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by artificial intelligence for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation. Original reporting by Financial Post. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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