Euro, Yen Sink to New Lows Against Dollar as Oil Pain Deepens

EURUSD at 1.1452 sits above its 5-year mean of 1.1317, suggesting residual overvaluation following the anomalous +12.89% 2025 rally. The oil-at-$100 macro shock acts as a structural tax on eurozone trade balances and purchasing power, compounding the ECB's constrained policy space versus the Fed. The Iran conflict introduces a persistent energy supply premium that historically sustains USD bid for 6-12 week windows. Recent 6-month consolidation in the 1.15-1.16 range has now broken to the downside at 1.1452, confirming distribution and technical rollover. Monthly sigma of 1.75% implies manageable but real risk of sharp reversals if geopolitical resolution occurs. The 2026 YTD trend of -2.51% aligns directionally with the bearish thesis but limits urgency for aggressive positioning. ⚡ DEEP SONNET: Enter short on any intraday bounce to 1.147-1.150 resistance cluster; current 1.1452 also acceptable as breakdown confirmation. Avoid chasing below 1.140 on initial entry. | TP:2.5% SL:1.8% | 4-8 weeks | Risk:MEDIUM — Primary risk is geopolitical resolution in Iran triggering rapid oil correction, removing the core USD tailwind and sparking short-covering in EUR. Secondary risk is ECB hawkish surprise or US inflation rollover weakening dollar momentum. The 2025 anomalous rally creates uncertainty about whether structural EUR demand flows have changed. Pair has already partially corrected from the 1.16 peak, limiting remaining clean downside before key support at 1.13-1.1317 mean. | Sizing:STANDARD