EU dice que nuevo líder de Irán está herido por ataque donde murió Ali Jamenei; sigue la guerra EN VIVO

The confirmed killing of Ali Khamenei and injury to successor Mojtaba Khamenei represents the most severe Iranian leadership disruption since the 1979 Revolution, introducing a historically unprecedented geopolitical premium into crude oil markets. Iran produces ~3.3 mb/d and controls access to the Strait of Hormuz, through which ~20% of global seaborne oil transits; any power vacuum increases probability of IRGC unilateral military action or deliberate Hormuz closure as retaliation. CL=F current at 98.4 shows strong upward momentum recovering from March lows of 83.45, and this catalyst is structurally bullish with immediate supply-disruption risk repricing. Monthly σ of 7.15% implies a 1-sigma monthly move to ~105.4, consistent with the 5yr resistance at 105.76, but a genuine Hormuz disruption scenario opens a path to 115-120 territory. The 2026 YTD gain of +71.37% confirms the market has been pricing in elevated geopolitical tension, yet a leadership assassination event of this magnitude is not yet fully discounted at current levels. ⚡ DEEP SONNET: Enter at market open or on any intraday pullback to 96.5-97.5 range; avoid chasing above 101 on initial spike. Scale in 60% immediately, reserve 40% for any news-driven dip below 97. | TP:10.5% SL:5.5% | 7-21 days; reassess at 5yr resistance 105.76 and upon any Iranian succession clarity | Risk:HIGH — Principal risks are: (1) news retraction or misreporting would trigger sharp reversal from already-elevated levels; (2) coordinated SPR release by IEA/US could cap upside by 5-8%; (3) Iranian internal stabilization faster than expected could compress the geopolitical premium within days; (4) CL=F at 98.4 has limited margin-of-safety if the headline is overstated. The 71% 2026 YTD gain means some crowded long positioning exists that could unwind violently on any de-escalation signal. | Sizing:STANDARD