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Mercado vira aposta para o Copom e passa a ver corte menor da Selic

Opção de Copom na B3 mostra migração de apostas de 0,50 para 0,25 ponto após IPCA mais duro na composição e alta do petróleo The post Mercado vira aposta para o Copom e passa a ver corte menor da Selic appeared first on InfoMoney.

Mar 13, 2026 &03311313202631; 15:31 UTC www.infomoney.com.br Trending 2/5

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Negative for markets

Sentiment score: -65/100

High impact Immediate effect (hours)

WHAT THIS MEANS

Brazilian market participants are shifting expectations for the Central Bank's (Copom) interest rate decision from a 0.50% cut to a smaller 0.25% cut, driven by stronger-than-expected IPCA inflation data and rising oil prices that increase inflationary pressures.

AI CONFIDENCE

85% Very high

SENTIMENT GAUGE

NEWS POWER SCORE

AFFECTED ASSETS

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FTSE MIB (Italy)

FTSEMIB.MIIndex

Expected to decline

Higher Brazilian rates reduce emerging market attractiveness and increase capital outflow risk from European equities

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Euro / US Dollar

EURUSDCurrency

Expected to decline

Smaller Selic cuts support BRL strength as carry trade becomes less attractive, weakening EUR relative to USD

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Oil (WTI Crude)

CL=FCommodity

Expected to rise

Rising oil prices cited as inflationary pressure supporting Copom's hawkish stance

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10-Year Treasury Yield

^TNXBond

Expected to rise

Higher Brazilian rates increase global bond yield pressures and reduce demand for lower-yielding assets

PRICE HISTORY

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⚡ SUGGESTED ACTION

Short emerging market equities and long USD/BRL given hawkish Copom pivot. Monitor oil prices and inflation data closely as key drivers of further rate path adjustments.

KEY SIGNALS

IPCA inflation data stronger than expectedOil price surge increasing inflationary concernsMarket repricing Copom expectations from 50bps to 25bps cutEmerging market rate differential wideningPotential capital outflows from EM assets

SECTORS INVOLVED

Financial ServicesEnergyConsumer Discretionary

Analysis generated on Mar 16, 2026 at 14:00 UTC

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by artificial intelligence for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation. Original reporting by InfoMoney. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Mercado vira aposta para o Copom e passa a ver corte menor da Selic

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