Brasil pode ratificar acordo Mercosul-UE na próxima semana, diz Mauro Vieira

The Mercosur-EU trade agreement ratification would create one of the largest bilateral trade zones globally (~800M consumers combined), generating direct upside for FTSEMIB exporters in automotive (Stellantis), industrials, fashion, and chemicals through tariff reduction on key categories. However, the conditional language ('may ratify next week') introduces material event risk, and 20+ years of negotiation history means markets have partially discounted incremental progress announcements. Current price action is bearish: FTSEMIB has drifted from 45,202 to 44,316 across recent sessions (-1.96%), with each rally capped below the 45,200 resistance node. Monthly sigma of 3.65% (~1,620 points) means the anticipated catalyst pop of 2-3% falls within routine noise, limiting statistical signal clarity. A 'buy the rumor, sell the news' dynamic is a material concern given the index's 18-session downward drift into this headline. ⚡ DEEP SONNET: Current spot 44,200-44,400 range on any minor intraday dip, ideally confirmed by a retest of 44,000 support holding. Avoid chasing any gap-up open above 44,800 — wait for consolidation. Entry improves materially on official ratification confirmation rather than ministerial statement. | TP:3.5% SL:2.5% | 10-18 trading days, centered around ratification announcement event window | Risk:MEDIUM — Primary risks: (1) ratification delay/failure given complex multilateral approval process still pending across EU member states, creating sharp reversal risk; (2) index already in 12-month negative trend (-6.56%), limiting momentum support; (3) proximity to 5-year highs reduces asymmetric upside vs downside; (4) EUR strength triggered by deal optimism could paradoxically hurt Italian exporters' competitiveness vs USD-based competitors in Brazilian market. | Sizing:STANDARD