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Centre flags war risk to Thai growth

A worst-case scenario for the Middle East conflict, which is war dragging on without a clear end, would reduce Thai GDP by 2.31 percentage points, according to the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).

Mar 13, 2026 &03081313202631; 22:08 UTC www.bangkokpost.com Trending 4/5

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Negative for markets

Sentiment score: -75/100

High impact Medium-term (weeks)

WHAT THIS MEANS

Thai economic growth faces significant downside risk from prolonged Middle East conflict, with worst-case scenario projecting 2.31 percentage point GDP reduction. This geopolitical uncertainty threatens Thailand's export-dependent economy and regional stability.

AI CONFIDENCE

75% High

SENTIMENT GAUGE

NEWS POWER SCORE

AFFECTED ASSETS

⇅

S&P 500

^GSPCIndex

High volatility expected

Global equity markets sensitive to Middle East geopolitical escalation and potential supply chain disruptions

↑

Oil (WTI Crude)

CL=FCommodity

Expected to rise

Oil prices likely to rise on Middle East conflict concerns, increasing input costs for Asian economies

⇅

Euro / US Dollar

EURUSDCurrency

High volatility expected

Safe-haven flows and risk-off sentiment from geopolitical tensions affecting currency pairs

↓

IT→.MI

IT→.MIStock

Expected to decline

Thai equities vulnerable to reduced GDP growth forecasts and export demand weakness

PRICE HISTORY

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⚡ SUGGESTED ACTION

Consider reducing exposure to Thai equities and export-sensitive Asian stocks. Hedge with defensive positions in safe-haven assets (bonds, gold) and monitor oil prices for inflationary pressures on emerging markets.

KEY SIGNALS

2.31% potential GDP contraction in worst-case scenarioGeopolitical risk premium increasingExport-dependent economy vulnerabilityRegional stability concernsSupply chain disruption risk

SECTORS INVOLVED

FinancialsEnergyConsumer DiscretionaryIndustrialsTransportation

Analysis generated on Mar 16, 2026 at 13:05 UTC

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by artificial intelligence for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation. Original reporting by Bangkok Post Business. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Centre flags war risk to Thai growth

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