MarketWatch EN

Soaring gas and energy prices could ‘completely eat up’ your bigger tax refund if the Iran conflict continues

Refunds are almost 11% higher than the same point last year, the IRS said this week.

Mar 14, 2026 &03001414202631; 12:00 UTC feeds.marketwatch.com Trending 4/5

Read original on feeds.marketwatch.com ↗

↘

Negative for markets

Sentiment score: -65/100

Moderate impact Short-term (days)

WHAT THIS MEANS

Rising gas and energy prices could significantly erode larger tax refunds expected this year, which are up 11% compared to the same period last year. If geopolitical tensions with Iran escalate further, energy costs may continue climbing, potentially offsetting consumer gains from increased tax refunds.

AI CONFIDENCE

72% High

SENTIMENT GAUGE

NEWS POWER SCORE

AFFECTED ASSETS

↑

Oil (WTI Crude)

CL=FCommodity

Expected to rise

Iran conflict escalation typically drives crude oil prices higher due to supply concerns

↑

Gold Futures

GC=FCommodity

Expected to rise

Geopolitical tensions increase safe-haven demand for precious metals

⇅

Euro / US Dollar

EURUSDCurrency

High volatility expected

Energy price volatility affects currency markets, particularly euro-dollar dynamics

↓

S&P 500

^GSPCIndex

Expected to decline

Higher energy costs pressure corporate margins and consumer spending power

PRICE HISTORY

Loading chart...

⚡ SUGGESTED ACTION

Consider hedging energy exposure through commodity futures or energy sector puts. Monitor crude oil and natural gas prices closely as Iran tensions could trigger sharp upside moves, eroding consumer refund benefits and pressuring equity markets.

KEY SIGNALS

Tax refunds up 11% YoY but purchasing power threatened by energy inflationIran geopolitical risk premium in oil marketsConsumer discretionary spending at risk from energy cost squeezeStagflation concerns if energy prices remain elevated

SECTORS INVOLVED

EnergyConsumer DiscretionaryUtilitiesTransportation

Analysis generated on Mar 16, 2026 at 12:36 UTC

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by artificial intelligence for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation. Original reporting by MarketWatch. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Soaring gas and energy prices could ‘completely eat up’ your bigger tax refund if the Iran conflict continues

RELATED INTELLIGENCE