SCMP Business EN

How US-Israel war on Iran rocks foundations of the Abraham Accords

The 2020 Abraham Accords were heralded as a transformative diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East. The US-brokered agreements normalised relations between Israel and Arab states including the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain. They established full diplomatic relations, opening embassies, initiating direct commercial flights, expanding trade ties and encouraging people-to-people exchanges. The accords were notable because the participating Arab states agreed to normalise relations with...

Mar 15, 2026 &03301515202631; 21:30 UTC www.scmp.com Trending 4/5

Read original on www.scmp.com ↗

↘

Negative for markets

Sentiment score: -65/100

High impact Medium-term (weeks)

WHAT THIS MEANS

Escalating US-Israel military tensions with Iran threaten to destabilize the Abraham Accords framework, potentially undermining the 2020 diplomatic breakthrough that normalized relations between Israel and Arab states. This geopolitical risk could disrupt trade relationships, foreign investment flows, and regional economic cooperation established under the accords.

AI CONFIDENCE

75% High

SENTIMENT GAUGE

NEWS POWER SCORE

AFFECTED ASSETS

⇅

Euro / US Dollar

EURUSDCurrency

High volatility expected

Geopolitical tensions increase safe-haven demand for USD, creating volatility in currency pairs

↑

Oil (WTI Crude)

CL=FCommodity

Expected to rise

Iran tensions historically drive crude oil prices higher due to supply disruption concerns in the Strait of Hormuz

↑

Gold Futures

GC=FCommodity

Expected to rise

Safe-haven demand for gold increases amid Middle East geopolitical uncertainty

↓

Euro Stoxx 50

^STOXX50EIndex

Expected to decline

European equities vulnerable to Middle East escalation and potential energy price shocks

⇅

EU→.PA

EU→.PAStock

High volatility expected

UAE and Gulf state equities face uncertainty from potential regional conflict expansion

PRICE HISTORY

Loading chart...

⚡ SUGGESTED ACTION

Reduce exposure to Middle East-dependent equities and consider defensive positioning. Increase allocation to safe-haven assets (gold, USD) and energy commodities as geopolitical risk premium expands. Monitor for further escalation signals that could trigger broader market volatility.

KEY SIGNALS

Abraham Accords framework stability at riskRegional trade and investment flows threatenedSafe-haven asset demand increasingOil supply chain vulnerability elevatedDiplomatic relations between Arab states and Israel under pressure

SECTORS INVOLVED

EnergyDefenseAerospaceInternational TradeFinancial ServicesTourism

Analysis generated on Mar 16, 2026 at 11:27 UTC

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by artificial intelligence for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation. Original reporting by SCMP Business. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

How US-Israel war on Iran rocks foundations of the Abraham Accords

RELATED INTELLIGENCE