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Gestores esperam que BC corte Selic em 0,5 ponto, mas projetam fim de ano mais duro

Levantamento da XP com 23 gestoras mostra que expectativa ampla por início do ciclo de cortes com redução de meio ponto percentual, mas ambiente externo volátil muda projeções à frente The post Gestores esperam que BC corte Selic em 0,5 ponto, mas projetam fim de ano mais duro appeared first on InfoMoney.

Mar 16, 2026 &03011616202631; 10:01 UTC www.infomoney.com.br Trending 2/5

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Neutral impact

Sentiment score: -15/100

Moderate impact Short-term (days)

WHAT THIS MEANS

Brazilian fund managers expect the Central Bank to cut the Selic rate by 0.5 percentage points, initiating an easing cycle, but anticipate a more challenging environment towards year-end due to volatile external conditions. The XP survey of 23 asset managers shows broad consensus on the initial rate cut, though forward projections remain uncertain amid global economic headwinds.

AI CONFIDENCE

72% High

SENTIMENT GAUGE

NEWS POWER SCORE

AFFECTED ASSETS

⇅

FTSE MIB (Italy)

FTSEMIB.MIIndex

High volatility expected

Brazilian equity market sensitive to monetary policy shifts and external volatility; rate cuts typically supportive but offset by macro uncertainty

⇅

Euro / US Dollar

EURUSDCurrency

High volatility expected

Brazilian real dynamics influenced by Selic expectations and risk sentiment; divergent monetary policies between ECB and BCB create currency volatility

↓

10-Year Treasury Yield

^TNXBond

Expected to decline

Brazilian fixed income yields may compress with anticipated Selic cuts, though external volatility could support longer-dated yields

PRICE HISTORY

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⚡ SUGGESTED ACTION

Position for near-term Brazilian fixed income strength on anticipated Selic cuts, but maintain hedges against external volatility and year-end macro deterioration. Consider tactical long duration exposure with protective puts on equity indices.

KEY SIGNALS

Consensus 0.5% Selic rate cut expectedBroad manager agreement on easing cycle initiationExternal volatility creating year-end uncertaintyDivergence between near-term cuts and forward pessimism

SECTORS INVOLVED

Financial ServicesFixed IncomeEmerging Markets

Analysis generated on Mar 16, 2026 at 10:34 UTC

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by artificial intelligence for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation. Original reporting by InfoMoney. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Gestores esperam que BC corte Selic em 0,5 ponto, mas projetam fim de ano mais duro

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