IMF – Eur/Usd renova mínimos de julho de 2025

EUR/USD is testing and renewing the July 2025 lows at 1.1452, representing a technically significant breakdown after the exceptional 2025 rally (+12.89%). The macro backdrop is decisively USD-positive: US household consumption beat forecasts reinforcing Fed hawkishness, while oil renewing 2022 highs sustains inflationary pressure and reduces probability of Fed cuts. Gold trading between $5000-$5200/oz signals extreme inflation and macro uncertainty premium, historically correlated with USD strength in stagflationary regimes. The 12-month trend of -2.97% confirms the structural downtrend from 2025 peak, and monthly σ of 1.75% suggests a move to 1.1200 is within 1.4 standard deviations — achievable within 3-5 weeks. ⚡ DEEP SONNET: Short on confirmed close below 1.1440 (July 2025 low confirmation). Ideal entry: 1.1435-1.1455 zone on intraday retest of breakdown level. Avoid chasing spikes below 1.1400 on initial break. | TP:2.2% SL:1% | 2-4 weeks | Risk:MEDIUM — The primary risk is a sudden macro reversal: if oil spikes further it could eventually trigger stagflation fears in the US, weakening USD. Gold at $5000+ suggests extreme dislocation and potential volatility spike. Canadian unemployment rising adds risk-off complexity. Technically, EUR/USD is not oversold on monthly timeframe given the 2025 extension, but daily momentum may be stretched short-term. ECB-Fed policy divergence narrative could shift abruptly on any weak US data print. | Sizing:STANDARD