Kina: Eniga med USA om tullar

The US-China tariff stabilization agreement represents a meaningful reduction in systematic trade risk that has been suppressing equity multiples across global markets. The S&P 500 at 6632 sits approximately 5% below its 5-year high of 6978, and a confirmed trade truce removes a key valuation headwind — historically, tariff de-escalation events have catalyzed 3-7% SPX moves within 10-15 trading sessions. However, the signal originates from China's deputy trade minister unilaterally at a press conference, introducing asymmetric credibility risk until a matching US confirmation materializes. Monthly σ of 3.56% implies the market can absorb meaningful re-rating, and the recent six-session drawdown from 6796 to 6632 (-2.4%) creates a technically compressed setup with favorable risk/reward for a mean-reversion long. ⚡ DEEP SONNET: Await US-side confirmation or official joint communiqué before full entry. If confirmed intraday, enter on any 0.5-1.0% pullback from the initial gap, targeting the 6640-6670 zone. Avoid chasing the first 30 minutes of volatility. | TP:5.2% SL:3.1% | 10-20 trading sessions | Risk:MEDIUM — The primary risk is single-source credibility: only the Chinese side has publicly confirmed the agreement, and US corroboration has not yet been cited. Trade negotiations between these two parties have historically been prone to abrupt reversals and miscommunication (see 2019 phase-one cycle). Secondary risk is that markets may partially price this in on open gap, reducing entry quality. Valuation risk persists given the S&P 500 trades above its 5-year mean by ~17%, limiting sustained multiple expansion without earnings support. | Sizing:STANDARD