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JPMorgan, Itaú e XP passam a ver Selic com queda menor ou em 15% com alta do petróleo

Casas veem mudança no balanço de riscos do Banco Central a dois dias da decisão após "promessa" de início da flexibilização monetária The post JPMorgan, Itaú e XP passam a ver Selic com queda menor ou em 15% com alta do petróleo appeared first on InfoMoney.

Mar 16, 2026 &03451616202631; 13:45 UTC www.infomoney.com.br Trending 3/5

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Negative for markets

Sentiment score: -35/100

High impact Immediate effect (hours)

WHAT THIS MEANS

Major Brazilian financial institutions (JPMorgan, Itaú, XP) have revised their Selic rate forecasts upward, expecting smaller cuts or a floor at 15% due to rising oil prices. This shift reflects changing risk assessments at the Central Bank just ahead of their monetary policy decision, potentially limiting the expected easing cycle.

AI CONFIDENCE

75% High

SENTIMENT GAUGE

NEWS POWER SCORE

AFFECTED ASSETS

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ITUB4.SA

ITUB4.SAStock

Expected to rise

Higher interest rates benefit banking sector profitability and net interest margins

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BBDC4.SA

BBDC4.SAStock

Expected to rise

Banking stocks benefit from higher Selic rates and reduced rate-cut expectations

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IBOV.SA

IBOV.SAIndex

High volatility expected

Mixed impact: positive for financials but negative for growth/consumption stocks due to higher rates

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Oil (WTI Crude)

CL=FCommodity

Expected to rise

Oil price surge is the primary driver of revised Selic expectations

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BRLUSD

BRLUSDCurrency

Expected to decline

Higher rates may support Brazilian Real, but oil-driven inflation concerns could pressure currency

PRICE HISTORY

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⚡ SUGGESTED ACTION

Long Brazilian bank stocks (ITUB4, BBDC4) on higher rate expectations; monitor oil prices as key driver. Consider reducing exposure to rate-sensitive consumer/growth stocks given limited easing ahead.

KEY SIGNALS

Selic rate cut cycle expectations reducedOil price inflation concerns overriding monetary easingCentral Bank risk assessment shiftConsensus revision by major financial institutionsImmediate policy decision catalyst

SECTORS INVOLVED

Financial ServicesBankingEnergyConsumer Discretionary

Analysis generated on Mar 16, 2026 at 13:54 UTC

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by artificial intelligence for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation. Original reporting by InfoMoney. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

JPMorgan, Itaú e XP passam a ver Selic com queda menor ou em 15% com alta do petróleo

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