Meta stock pops on planned layoffs, $27 billion Nebius cloud-computing deal

META at $613.71 is receiving a dual catalyst: layoff announcements signal a renewed 'Year of Efficiency' margin expansion playbook, while the $27B Nebius cloud deal confirms aggressive AI infrastructure positioning. The recent 6-point March 2026 series shows a consistent downtrend from $654.86 to $613.71 (-6.3%), meaning this news pop is arriving into a technically weakened setup — the question is whether it triggers genuine trend reversal or a dead-cat relief rally. Monthly volatility of 9.8% means 1-sigma monthly moves of ~$60, giving asymmetric upside if the stock reclaims the $638-655 resistance cluster. At $613.71, META trades 24.7% above its 5yr mean ($492.53) but 20.6% below the all-time high ($773.44), suggesting substantial recovery runway if macro headwinds ease. ⚡ DEEP SONNET: Enter on any intraday pullback toward $610-615 zone after initial pop fades; if momentum is sustained above $638, consider adding on confirmed breakout above March resistance cluster at $654-655. Avoid chasing above $650 on first-day euphoria. | TP:10.5% SL:6.5% | 4-8 weeks | Risk:MEDIUM — Primary risks include execution failure on Nebius integration (large $27B capex commitment introduces capital allocation uncertainty), layoff-related talent attrition in AI/engineering divisions critical for LLM competitiveness, and macro rate sensitivity. The ongoing -6.59% 12-month trend and March 2026 consolidation suggest broader market headwinds that a single news catalyst may not fully overcome. Regulatory risk around AI investments and data practices adds tail risk. | Sizing:STANDARD