Gasoline prices hit highest level since March 2022 as oil tops $100

WTI crude at $98.23 is in a parabolic move from $65 in early February 2026 to nearly $100 in approximately 6 weeks — a ~51% surge driven by Iran war geopolitical premium. The Hormuz Strait closure threat is the primary supply-shock catalyst, as approximately 20% of global oil transits this chokepoint. The L2 signal flags broad market bearishness (-60) but correctly identifies CL=F as directionally UP — classic supply-shock decoupling where crude benefits while risk assets suffer. Monthly volatility of 2.62% is likely understated given current regime; realized vol is running well above historical σ. The Trump administration explicitly rejecting an oil export ban removes a potential bearish policy override. ⚡ DEEP SONNET: Current levels ($96-98) acceptable for momentum continuation; preferred entry on any intraday pullback to $94-95 support. Avoid chasing above $100 breakout without confirmation hold for 2+ sessions. | TP:10% SL:6% | 1-3 weeks (geopolitical premium has short half-life; monitor ceasefire signals daily) | Risk:HIGH — Multiple compounding risks: (1) Geopolitical de-escalation or ceasefire would trigger sharp -15 to -20% reversal; (2) Approaching $100 psychological resistance where profit-taking accelerates; (3) Fed policy response to oil-driven inflation could trigger demand destruction narrative; (4) Position is extremely extended — 51% in 6 weeks — increasing tail-risk of violent correction; (5) Hormuz intelligence is fluid and fast-moving. | Sizing:STANDARD