US readies 'largest strike package' on Iran

WTI crude has already surged ~51% from February 2026 lows ($65.21) to current $98.23, partially reflecting escalating geopolitical risk premium. A confirmed US 'largest strike package' on Iran introduces three simultaneous supply shock vectors: (1) direct disruption of Iranian production (~3.2 mbpd), (2) elevated probability of Strait of Hormuz interference affecting ~20% of global seaborne oil trade, and (3) regional contagion risk across Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia and UAE. Historical precedent from Russia-Ukraine (2022) and Gulf War episodes shows geopolitical shocks can sustain $15-40/bbl premiums for 2-8 weeks before partial mean reversion. Monthly σ of 2.62% understates tail risk during active conflict escalation phases — realized volatility likely 3-5x normal. The $100 psychological resistance is the immediate hurdle; a confirmed strike breaks that level decisively. ⚡ DEEP SONNET: Immediate entry at $97-99 on market open, or scale in on any intraday pullback to $94-96 range. Avoid chasing above $102 without confirmation of actual supply disruption or Strait of Hormuz threat. | TP:18% SL:8% | 5-21 days (geopolitical premium event-driven; reassess post-strike confirmation) | Risk:HIGH — Three compounding risks: (1) Price has already rallied 51% from lows, meaning significant geopolitical premium is already embedded, creating sharp reversal risk on de-escalation or 'limited strike' outcome. (2) Sell-the-news dynamic if military action is contained/surgical without supply disruption. (3) Demand destruction at elevated prices ($100+) could offset supply fear premium within 2-4 weeks. Upside scenario ($115-125) is well-defined; downside if strike is called off or limited could flush to $88-90. | Sizing:STANDARD