Kraftigt ned på börserna i Asien – oljepriset stiger

The N225 has declined ~12.5% from its February 2026 peak of 58,850 and is now at 51,504, indicating a sustained technical breakdown rather than a brief correction. The Middle East escalation catalyst is particularly damaging for Japan, which imports approximately 90% of its energy needs — rising oil prices directly compress margins across manufacturing, logistics, and utilities sectors. The 20-day price series shows an accelerating downtrend with brief consolidations quickly rejected lower, confirming distribution behavior. Monthly sigma of 1.62% implies the current move is a 3.5–4 sigma drawdown over the trailing two months, suggesting either capitulation or a structural repricing rather than noise. Bearish momentum is reinforced by the 12m trend already negative at -6.83% before this geopolitical shock. ⚡ DEEP SONNET: Short/underweight entry on any bounce to 52,500–53,200 resistance zone; avoid chasing at current oversold levels intraday — wait for 1–2 session stabilization then re-test of broken support as new resistance | TP:5.5% SL:3.2% | 5–15 trading days | Risk:HIGH — Japan's structural energy import dependence (oil shock transmission), potential yen safe-haven appreciation hurting exporters simultaneously, and technical breakdown below multiple short-term support levels. Cross-market contagion from US and European equity weakness on open compounds downside risk. Geopolitical premium in oil tends to be mean-reverting but initial spike volatility can cause significant equity dislocations. | Sizing:CONSERVATIVE