Så har striderna slagit mot energianläggningarna

The IEA's confirmation that 40+ energy assets across 9 Middle Eastern nations have sustained severe damage represents a major supply-side structural shock — not a temporary headline risk. The current price trajectory from 65.21 in early February to 98.63 in late March (~+51% in ~7 weeks) reflects aggressive repricing of a geopolitical risk premium. However, at 98.63, crude is now pressing the critical $100 psychological resistance level, which historically triggers algorithmic selling and profit-taking. Monthly σ of 2.62% is deceptively low given the recent daily range expansion, suggesting the realized volatility is now meaningfully above the trailing estimate. The IEA commentary about post-conflict supply chain disruptions implies a medium-term structural floor rather than a transient spike — reinforcing the long thesis beyond near-term volatility. ⚡ DEEP SONNET: Partial entry at current levels (96-99 zone); add aggressively on confirmed weekly close above 100.50. Secondary entry on pullback to 93-95 support (former resistance, now support) if $100 rejection occurs. | TP:15.6% SL:8.8% | 3-6 weeks, with reassessment at $100 break or geopolitical ceasefire signals | Risk:MEDIUM — The fundamental case is strong (IEA-confirmed, multi-nation supply infrastructure damage with extended disruption timeline), but the 50%+ move in 7 weeks creates crowded-long risk. A failure to break $100 could trigger a sharp mean-reversion toward 88-90. Geopolitical de-escalation headlines remain the primary tail risk. Cross-market contagion from equity selloffs could temporarily suppress oil via margin liquidation. | Sizing:STANDARD