WORLD IN BRIEF: Iran threatens full Hormuz closure if US strikes energy sites, Kenya grants amnesty to citizens fighting for Russia, South Africa slaps tariffs on Chinese, Thai steel and other stories

WTI crude has already staged a near-parabolic move from $65.21 in early February 2026 to current $98.63, a +51% rally in roughly 6 weeks driven by escalating Middle East tensions. Iran's explicit Hormuz closure threat — if executed — would remove ~20% of global seaborne oil supply and historically triggers 15-30% spikes within days. Current price action shows consolidation in a $93-99 range over the past week, forming a bull flag just below the psychological $100 level. Monthly volatility of 2.62% is understated relative to current realized moves, suggesting momentum is structurally driven by risk premium re-pricing rather than normal mean-reversion dynamics. The signal-to-noise ratio here is high: geopolitical catalyst is specific, credible, and multi-source confirmed, aligning with the already-dominant uptrend. ⚡ DEEP SONNET: Current levels $97-99 on any intraday pullback. A confirmed breakout above $100 on volume adds conviction for momentum entry. Avoid chasing above $103 without fresh catalyst confirmation. | TP:19% SL:10% | 2-6 weeks, event-driven — Hormuz developments are the binary catalyst; exit quickly if diplomatic signals emerge | Risk:MEDIUM — Geopolitical premium is already significant (~$15-20 above pre-escalation levels), creating asymmetric downside if Iran-US talks de-escalate or if Hormuz threats are assessed as bluster. Demand destruction risk accelerates above $105 as global recession fears mount. However, the probability-weighted upside from an actual Hormuz disruption ($130-150 scenario) more than compensates. SPR release risk from the US is a key ceiling constraint. Cross-market: DXY strength could cap USD-denominated crude gains. | Sizing:STANDARD