Government borrowing costs set for worst month since Liz Truss

^TNX is displaying strong upward momentum, rising from 3.96 to 4.39 in roughly one month — a +43bps move that mirrors the geopolitical repricing seen in UK gilts. The Iran war narrative is functioning as a dual catalyst: it suppresses expectations for 2026 rate cuts globally (inflationary geopolitical risk + safe-haven fiscal spending fears) while simultaneously triggering flight-from-duration positioning across developed markets. The UK gilt contagion is historically a leading signal for US Treasury yield pressure, as coordinated global bond selloffs tend to amplify via cross-border positioning unwinds. Monthly σ of 2.22% suggests the current move is well within one standard deviation, meaning the market has room to push toward the 4.5–4.7% resistance band without statistical exhaustion. ⚡ DEEP SONNET: Current levels (4.35–4.40) represent a valid entry on a short-duration / short-bond thesis; a minor pullback to 4.28–4.32 on profit-taking would offer a higher-conviction re-entry with tighter risk parameters. | TP:6.5% SL:4.2% | 2–4 weeks, contingent on Iran conflict trajectory and Fed communication | Risk:MEDIUM — Upward yield momentum is well-supported by geopolitics and rate-cut repricing, but key reversal risks include: (1) rapid de-escalation of Iran conflict reversing safe-haven bond outflows, (2) a surprise dovish Fed pivot on weakening US labor data, and (3) technical exhaustion if 10Y approaches 4.6% triggering institutional duration buying. The geopolitical premium can unwind sharply and asymmetrically. | Sizing:STANDARD