Petróleo cai mais de 10% e brent chega a operar abaixo de US$ 100 com fala de Trump

WTI (CL=F) at $98.63 has staged a dramatic 50%+ rally from February 2026 lows near $65 in roughly 6 weeks — an aggressive ascent that created thin technical support beneath current levels. A Trump-driven single-session correction of 10%+ represents a high-velocity momentum reversal and the failure of the psychologically critical $100 Brent resistance, which historically has acted as a major ceiling. The 5-year mean sits at $76.55, implying significant mean-reversion gravity, and the steep angle of the recent ascent (Feb: $65 → Mar: $98.63) suggests minimal consolidation base to absorb selling. Monthly volatility of 2.62% is relatively low, meaning a 10% intraday move is a roughly 3.8-sigma event — implying real fundamental repricing rather than routine noise. ⚡ DEEP SONNET: Short entry on any dead-cat bounce toward $95–$97; avoid chasing the initial spike down. If price stabilizes and retests $94–$96 on reduced volume, that offers better risk/reward entry for shorts. | TP:12% SL:5% | 2–4 weeks | Risk:HIGH — Trump's verbal intervention on energy prices introduces binary policy risk: comments could be reversed, modified, or contradicted within days, creating violent two-way volatility. Additionally, geopolitical risk (Middle East, Russia-Ukraine) remains an upside tail risk capable of snapping prices back above $100 within sessions. The 10%+ intraday move also risks triggering short-covering rallies. Any SPR or OPEC+ response could invalidate short thesis rapidly. | Sizing:CONSERVATIVE