El petróleo se hunde 10% tras el anuncio de Donald Trump de suspender los ataques sobre Irán por cinco días

The 5-day ceasefire announcement effectively deflates a substantial portion of the geopolitical risk premium that propelled CL=F from ~65 to 98.63 (+51%) over roughly 7 weeks. A 10% single-day drawdown is consistent with the magnitude of the embedded war premium — historical analogs (Gulf War I cease-fires, Iran deal 2015) show 8-15% immediate unwinds. However, the suspension is explicitly temporary at 5 days, meaning the market is pricing a partial de-escalation, not resolution; structural supply disruption risk remains live. Post-drop support confluence sits at 87-90 (prior consolidation cluster: 87.25, 83.45) which should act as a floor absent a permanent ceasefire agreement. Monthly volatility of 2.62% implies a 1-sigma daily move of ~0.85%, making a 10% drop a roughly 12-sigma event — suggesting gap risk and thin liquidity rather than orderly repricing. ⚡ DEEP SONNET: Short entry window has largely passed with the 10% gap. For new shorts: wait for dead-cat bounce to 92-95 range (prior support turned resistance) to establish positions. For long scalp: accumulate near 87-90 with tight stops, exploiting temporary nature of ceasefire and risk of resumption. | TP:11% SL:4.5% | 3-7 days (tied to 5-day ceasefire window expiry) | Risk:HIGH — Multiple tail risks converge: (1) ceasefire collapse after 5 days triggers violent reversal to 95-100+; (2) OPEC+ strategic response to price decline could create floor via supply cut announcement; (3) thin market post-gap conditions amplify stop-hunting and whipsaw; (4) USD response and equity correlation shifts create cross-market noise. The asymmetry favors caution on aggressive shorts at current levels post-drop. | Sizing:CONSERVATIVE