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Goldman Axes Indonesia Rate-Cut Forecasts, Flags India Hikes

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. dropped its call for monetary easing in Indonesia this year while adding interest-rate hikes for India and the Philippines as the US-Israeli war on Iran drives up energy prices and boosts inflation across Asia.

Mar 24, 2026 &03332424202631; 00:33 UTC feeds.bloomberg.com Trending 3/5

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Negative for markets

Sentiment score: -65/100

Moderate impact Short-term (days)

WHAT THIS MEANS

Goldman Sachs revised its Asia monetary policy forecasts, removing expected Indonesia rate cuts and adding rate hike expectations for India and the Philippines, citing elevated energy prices from Middle East geopolitical tensions driving inflation concerns across the region.

AI CONFIDENCE

75% High

SENTIMENT GAUGE

NEWS POWER SCORE

AFFECTED ASSETS

↑

USDINR

USDINRCurrency

Expected to rise

Higher Indian rate hikes expectations support USD strength against INR

↑

USDIDR

USDIDRCurrency

Expected to rise

Removed rate cuts in Indonesia support USD appreciation

↑

Oil (WTI Crude)

CL=FCommodity

Expected to rise

Geopolitical tensions in Middle East driving energy price inflation cited as primary driver

↓

Euro Stoxx 50

^STOXX50EIndex

Expected to decline

Higher inflation and tighter monetary policy headwinds for European-exposed Asian economies

↓

Euro / US Dollar

EURUSDCurrency

Expected to decline

Asian rate hikes relative to potential Fed pause creates divergence favoring USD

PRICE HISTORY

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⚡ SUGGESTED ACTION

Short emerging market currencies (INR, IDR, PHP) against USD; long crude oil on geopolitical premium. Monitor for further central bank guidance; this is a structural headwind for EM assets in near term.

KEY SIGNALS

Geopolitical risk premium in energy marketsInflation acceleration in AsiaDiverging monetary policy paths (tightening vs easing)Central bank hawkish pivotEM currency pressure

SECTORS INVOLVED

Financial ServicesEnergyEmerging Markets

Analysis generated on Mar 24, 2026 at 01:20 UTC

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by artificial intelligence for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation. Original reporting by Bloomberg Markets. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Goldman Axes Indonesia Rate-Cut Forecasts, Flags India Hikes

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