IRGC announces new wave of Op True Promise 4

IRGC's announcement of Op True Promise 4 represents a material escalation in Middle East geopolitical risk, directly threatening Strait of Hormuz throughput (~20% of global seaborne oil). CL=F has already surged ~51% from $65.21 (Feb 2026 lows) to $98.63, meaning a significant geopolitical risk premium is already embedded. The near-term directional bias remains bullish, but the risk/reward is asymmetric: further supply disruption fears could push toward the $110-115 zone, while any de-escalation or 'announcement without action' dynamic would trigger rapid mean-reversion toward $85-88. Monthly sigma of 2.62% suggests the recent daily moves far exceed normalized volatility, flagging an overextended condition. Short-term momentum is firmly bullish but overbought metrics and proximity to the psychological $100 resistance argue for measured positioning rather than aggressive chase. ⚡ DEEP SONNET: Current market ($98.00-98.63) or on any intraday pullback to $95.50-96.50 support cluster; avoid chasing above $100.50 without confirming volume breakout | TP:8.5% SL:5.2% | 5-15 trading days | Risk:HIGH — Price is severely extended above 5-year mean ($76.56), monthly volatility is understating realized recent moves, and the catalyst is an announcement rather than confirmed kinetic action. Reversal risk on de-escalation or diplomatic intervention is 12-18% downside. Strait of Hormuz closure tail risk (~$115-125 scenario) remains non-trivial but low probability. Cross-asset volatility contagion (equity selloff reducing demand expectations) could partially offset the supply-risk bid. | Sizing:CONSERVATIVE