The Guardian Business EN

Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

New online accounts on Polymarket platform betting a total of $70,000 suggest ‘some degree of inside info’Middle East crisis – live updatesSeveral accounts on the online platform Polymarket laid bets on a US-Iran ceasefire over the weekend that appeared to show signs of insider knowledge, according to experts.Eight accounts, all newly created around 21 March, bet a total of nearly $70,000 (£52,000) on there being a ceasefire. They stand to make nearly $820,000 if such a deal is reached before 31 March. Continue reading...

Mar 23, 2026 &03572323202631; 19:57 UTC www.theguardian.com

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Neutral impact

Sentiment score: -15/100

Moderate impact Immediate effect (hours)

WHAT THIS MEANS

Reports of suspicious betting activity on Polymarket regarding a potential US-Iran ceasefire suggest possible insider trading or information leakage. Eight newly created accounts wagered $70,000 on ceasefire odds with potential $820,000 payouts, raising regulatory and geopolitical concerns.

AI CONFIDENCE

65% High

SENTIMENT GAUGE

NEWS POWER SCORE

AFFECTED ASSETS

⇅

Oil (WTI Crude)

CL=FCommodity

High volatility expected

Oil prices highly sensitive to Middle East geopolitical developments; ceasefire would reduce risk premium

⇅

Euro / US Dollar

EURUSDCurrency

High volatility expected

Risk-off sentiment from insider trading allegations and geopolitical uncertainty affects EUR/USD dynamics

↑

S&P 500

^GSPCIndex

Expected to rise

Potential ceasefire reduces geopolitical risk premium; however, insider trading scandal may create regulatory headwinds

⇅

Euro Stoxx 50

^STOXX50EIndex

High volatility expected

European equities sensitive to Middle East tensions and energy prices; mixed signals from ceasefire hopes vs. regulatory concerns

PRICE HISTORY

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⚡ SUGGESTED ACTION

Monitor crude oil (CL=F) for direction confirmation—a ceasefire would likely push prices lower. Avoid chasing the ceasefire narrative; the market may have already priced in this outcome. Watch for regulatory action against Polymarket, which could create broader crypto/DeFi headwinds. Energy stocks and defense contractors warrant caution until geopolitical clarity emerges.

KEY SIGNALS

Potential insider information leakage on geopolitical eventsRegulatory scrutiny of decentralized prediction marketsGeopolitical risk premium may compress if ceasefire materializesSuspicious trading pattern: coordinated new accounts, concentrated bets, high payoff ratioMarket pricing in ceasefire probability may already reflect this information

SECTORS INVOLVED

EnergyDefenseFinancialsCryptocurrency/DeFi

Analysis generated on Mar 24, 2026 at 07:50 UTC

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by artificial intelligence for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation. Original reporting by The Guardian Business. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

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