Iran War Fallout Spreads Across Global Economy

CL=F has surged ~51% from $65.21 in early February 2026 to $98.63, driven by US-Israel military action against Iran — a direct threat to Strait of Hormuz flows (~20% of global seaborne oil). The price trajectory mirrors the 2022 Russia-Ukraine shock pattern where WTI ran from $75 to $123.7. Current consolidation around $98-99 after the $90→$98.71 leg suggests brief absorption before continuation. The spread to aluminum, fertilizers, and chemicals confirms this is a multi-commodity structural disruption, not a single-day spike, supporting sustained oil premium. Monthly σ of 2.62% understates realized volatility significantly — recent daily moves of 3-7% indicate war-premium expansion is still ongoing. ⚡ DEEP SONNET: Current market ($98.50-99.00) acceptable on momentum; preferred entry on pullback to $93-95 support zone which was prior resistance. Avoid chasing above $102 without consolidation confirmation. | TP:16.5% SL:7.8% | 4-8 weeks, war-dependent — reassess on any ceasefire signal or Hormuz transit data | Risk:HIGH — War premium is binary: ceasefire or de-escalation signal could reverse 15-20% rapidly. However, the supply disruption is already spreading into chemicals, fertilizers, and freight — these do not reverse instantly even with diplomatic progress. Upside scenario (Hormuz blockade) targets $120+; downside scenario (ceasefire) targets $78-82. The asymmetric risk is slightly favorable to bulls given structural supply destruction underway. | Sizing:STANDARD