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U.S. business activity slips to 11-month low in March amid Iran war, S&P Global survey shows

U.S. business activity slowed to an 11-month low in March as the war in the Middle East raised prices for energy products and other inputs, a survey showed on Tuesday, reinforcing fears of an acceleration in inflation in the months ahead.

Mar 24, 2026 &03562424202631; 18:56 UTC www.bnnbloomberg.ca Trending 2/5

Read original on www.bnnbloomberg.ca ↗

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Negative for markets

Sentiment score: -65/100

High impact Short-term (days)

WHAT THIS MEANS

U.S. business activity hit an 11-month low in March due to Middle East tensions raising energy and input costs, signaling potential inflation acceleration. Market has barely reacted (S&P 500 flat, VIX up modestly), suggesting the full impact may not be priced in yet.

AI CONFIDENCE

68% High

SENTIMENT GAUGE

NEWS POWER SCORE

AFFECTED ASSETS

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S&P 500

^GSPCIndex

Expected to decline

Slowing business activity + inflation concerns typically pressure equities; VIX uptick suggests fear is building but S&P 500 hasn't fully sold off yet

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Euro Stoxx 50

^STOXX50EIndex

Expected to decline

European equities sensitive to U.S. slowdown and energy cost pressures; geopolitical risk in Middle East affects EU energy imports

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Oil (WTI Crude)

CL=FCommodity

Expected to rise

Iran war tensions already driving energy prices higher; survey confirms input cost inflation is real and ongoing

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Euro / US Dollar

EURUSDCurrency

Expected to decline

U.S. slowdown + inflation concerns may pressure USD near-term, but geopolitical risk typically supports safe-haven USD; mixed signal

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10-Year Treasury Yield

^TNXBond

Expected to rise

Inflation acceleration fears will push bond yields higher as markets price in sticky price pressures

PRICE HISTORY

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⚡ SUGGESTED ACTION

Sell equities (^GSPC, ^STOXX50E) on weakness; buy energy (CL=F) and long bonds (^TNX). Avoid chasing; wait for 1-2% S&P 500 dip to confirm trend before entering shorts. Confidence moderate due to mixed market reaction so far. [MOVE:-1.2%]

KEY SIGNALS

11-month low in business activity = significant slowdown signalEnergy/input cost inflation from geopolitical risk = stagflation concernVIX +0.92% but S&P 500 flat = market hasn't fully repriced downside risk yetFresh news (0 min old) = market still absorbing impact

SECTORS INVOLVED

EnergyIndustrialsConsumer DiscretionaryTechnology

Analysis generated on Mar 24, 2026 at 15:18 UTC

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by artificial intelligence for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation. Original reporting by BNN Bloomberg. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

U.S. business activity slips to 11-month low in March amid Iran war, S&P Global survey shows

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