Gold Lower on Mixed Signals Over Potential Iran Ceasefire
Gold fell after US President Donald Trump sent mixed signals on whether the US and Iran could reach a deal to halt the nearly month-long war, further roiling global markets. Bullion fell as much as 3.4% Thursday, but trimmed some losses after Trump said he is extending the pause of strikes on Iran’s energy sites. “Talks are ongoing,” Trump posted on Truth Social, “and, despite erroneous statements to the contrary by the Fake News Media, and others, they are going very well.” Earlier Thursday, gold came close to a bear market — defined as a 20% drop from its recent peak — as the US president gave conflicting messages on a potential ceasefire. Axel Merk, President and Chief Investment Officer at Merk Investments, joins Bloomberg Businessweek Daily to discuss. He speaks with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. (Source: Bloomberg)
Mar 26, 2026 &03412626202631; 21:41 UTCfeeds.bloomberg.comTrending 3/5
Gold fell 3.4% on mixed Trump signals regarding Iran ceasefire negotiations, but recovered partially after he announced an extension of the strike pause. The conflicting messaging creates uncertainty about geopolitical risk premium, causing volatile swings in both gold and equities.
AI CONFIDENCE
45% Moderate
SENTIMENT GAUGE
NEWS POWER SCORE
AFFECTED ASSETS
⇅
Gold Futures
GC=FCommodity
High volatility expected
Gold already moved -3.4% intraday on conflicting ceasefire signals; Trump's extension of strike pause provides temporary relief but uncertainty remains. Further moves depend on actual deal progress, not rhetoric.
⇅
S&P 500
^GSPCIndex
High volatility expected
S&P 500 down -1.74% and VIX spiked +8.33% reflecting geopolitical uncertainty. Mixed Iran signals create risk-off sentiment but no clear directional catalyst yet.
Gold and equities have already absorbed the initial shock. With conflicting signals and intraday reversals, VOLATILE is the honest call. Wait for actual ceasefire agreement or breakdown before taking directional positions. Risk/reward is poor at current volatility levels. [MOVE:1.2%]
KEY SIGNALS
Gold intraday volatility (-3.4% then partial recovery) = market uncertainty, not convictionVIX spike (+8.33%) = fear premium, but no sustained directional move yetTrump's strike pause extension = de-escalation signal, but 'talks ongoing' is non-committalNews is FRESH (9 min old) but market has already reacted significantly — opportunity window closing
SECTORS INVOLVED
EnergyCommoditiesFinancials
Analysis generated on Mar 26, 2026 at 21:50 UTC
Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by artificial intelligence for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation. Original reporting by Bloomberg Markets. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Bloomberg Markets
EN
Bloomberg Markets
Mar 26, 23:04
Negative 
Dagens Industri
Mar 26, 21:34
Negative