IEA: Irankriget allvarligt hot mot världsekonomin

CL=F has already surged ~52% from Feb 2026 lows (~$65) to current $98.63, driven by geopolitical risk premium around the Iran conflict and Hormuz Strait threat. The IEA warning from a credible international body adds significant institutional weight to the bullish thesis — approximately 20% of global seaborne oil transits the Strait of Hormuz, making any blockade a structural supply shock. Price is now testing the psychologically critical $100 level after a rapid parabolic move with consolidation attempts at $83-87 and $93-96. The L2 sentiment (-72 BEARISH macro, but UP for crude) correctly captures the stagflationary dynamic: bad for equities/economy, bullish for energy commodities. Monthly volatility of 2.62% understates realized risk given recent daily swings of 3-5%, suggesting the market is still pricing in further premium expansion if conflict escalates. ⚡ DEEP SONNET: Wait for consolidation/pullback to $93-95 support zone before adding. If price breaks and holds above $100 on volume, momentum entry is justified. Avoid chasing at $98-99 given proximity to resistance. Scale in: 50% at $94-95, 50% on $100 breakout confirmation. | TP:14% SL:9% | 2–5 weeks, geopolitical-event driven | Risk:HIGH — The position has already made a massive move (+52% in ~7 weeks), creating significant drawdown risk if de-escalation occurs. The $100 level is strong psychological resistance. Overbought conditions exist on most momentum indicators following this rapid ascent. Tail risk is symmetric: upside tail (Hormuz blockade confirmed) could push to $120+; downside tail (ceasefire/diplomacy) could snap back to $80 in days. Additionally, a global recession triggered by sustained high oil prices would eventually cap demand and pressure prices from the other side. | Sizing:STANDARD