Petróleo se dispara a 113 dólares tras ultimátum de Trump a Irán para reabrir el Estrecho de Ormuz

WTI crude has already surged to $113 per the headline, representing a ~15% gap above the last data point of $98.63 — confirming the data lag and that geopolitical premium is actively being priced. The Strait of Hormuz carries ~20% of global seaborne crude, and any credible closure scenario justifies a $15-25 premium above pre-crisis levels. However, the move from $65.21 (Feb 2026) to $113 already constitutes a ~73% rally, meaning substantial risk premium has been front-loaded. Historical Trump-Iran escalation cycles (Jan 2020 Soleimani killing: +4.5% spike, fully reversed in 11 days) demonstrate that rhetoric-driven spikes are mean-reverting absent actual supply disruption. The 5-year high of $123.70 now represents the key technical ceiling, leaving only ~9-10% additional upside before major resistance. ⚡ DEEP SONNET: Enter on any intraday pullback to $108-110 range; avoid chasing at $113+ as momentum chasers create whipsaw risk near 5yr resistance. If price breaks and holds above $116 on volume, add to position targeting $122-123. | TP:9% SL:7% | 7-18 days — geopolitical premium pricing cycle; reassess at week 2 for diplomatic signals | Risk:HIGH — Three converging risks: (1) Price is already near 5-year resistance at $123.70, limiting upside asymmetry; (2) Trump-Iran geopolitical flare-ups historically resolve within 2-4 weeks, creating sharp mean-reversion risk; (3) Iran's counter-threat to attack US energy/desalination infrastructure introduces unpredictable escalation vectors that could shift the trade thesis entirely. On the upside, an actual Strait closure would be an unprecedented black swan that could push oil to $140-160, validating aggressive longs. Net risk/reward is skewed: limited upside to resistance, significant downside on de-escalation. | Sizing:STANDARD